[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 05 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 6 10:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. No earthward directed CME was observed during this
period. There are currently no sunspots on the solar disk visible
from the earth. As anticipated, the solar wind stream gained
strength due to the effect of the recurrent positive polarity
coronal hole from the northern hemisphere of the sun. Solar wind
speed showed a gradual increase from 450 km/s to around 610 km/s
today (UT day 5 December). The solar wind particle density mostly
stayed at the background levels of 10 ppcc. The Bz component
of IMF varied mostly between +/-10 nT. The Total IMF, Bt varied
mostly between 5 and 13 nT today. Solar wind stream is expected
to stay strong on 6 December and the first half of 7 December.
Decline in solar wind parameters may start during the second
half of 7 December as the coronal hole effect is expected to
start weakening around that time. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected from 6 to 8 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 20 33345333
Cocos Island 13 22234422
Darwin 18 32335333
Townsville 20 33345333
Learmonth 21 32345433
Alice Springs 18 32335333
Norfolk Island 14 23334332
Gingin 21 32335443
Camden 20 33345333
Canberra 18 33344333
Launceston 27 34455433
Hobart 24 33355433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 35 33466532
Casey 23 45434333
Mawson 38 54445644
Davis 161 345699--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 0021 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 40 Mostly unsettled to minor storm, isolated periods
of major storm possible
07 Dec 20 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated periods
of minor storm possible
08 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: As anticipated, the geomagnetic activity increased up
to minor storm levels today (UT day 5 December) across the Australian/NZ
regions due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a positive polarity recurrent coronal hole. Due to this effect
geomagnetic activity may stay high up to minor storm levels with
a small possibility of isolated major storm periods on 6 December
and the first half of 7 December. Geomagnetic activity may drop
down to active and then to unsettled levels late on 7 December.
Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions may be expected
for 8 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
07 Dec Normal-fair Fair Normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed on UT
day 5 December. Spread F and Sporadic E blanketing were observed
at several low and mid latitude locations. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions are likely to be observed during the next three
days (6 to 7 December), especially on mid and high latitude locations.
HF conditions may return to more normal levels on 8 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
07 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
08 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 5 December
and is current for 5-7 Dec. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 5 December. Spread
F and Sporadic E blanketing were observed at several low and
mid latitude locations. Minor to moderate MUF depressions are
likely to be observed in the Aus/NZ regions during the next three
days (6 to 7 December). HF conditions may return to more normal
levels in this region on 8 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 14.1 p/cc Temp: 18900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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