[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 30 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 1 10:30:29 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Dec             02 Dec             03 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours and 
is expected to remain so over the next three days. No earth directed 
CMEs observed in LASCO C2 imagery on 30 Nov. The long filament 
located in the southwest quadrant has rotated off the visible 
solar disk quietly. Solar wind speed increased to about 525 Km/s 
during 30 Nov and is presently around 450 Km/s due to the influence 
of high speed solar wind stream from a southern hemisphere polar 
extending negative polarity coronal hole. The Bz component of 
the IMF ranged mostly between +/-7nT with a southward excursion 
up to -9 nT around 0130UT day while Bt fluctuated between +4nT 
and 10 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain slightly 
enhanced today, 01 Dec then trend towards ambient levels over 
02-03 Dec.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23123312
      Cocos Island         6   22023301
      Darwin               7   23123211
      Townsville          10   23123323
      Learmonth            8   22123312
      Alice Springs        9   23123312
      Norfolk Island       7   -3122222
      Culgoora             9   23123312
      Gingin              10   32123412
      Camden               9   23223312
      Canberra             6   23112202
      Launceston          12   33223323
      Hobart               9   23223312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    11   33113412
      Casey               25   45543323
      Mawson              30   45333554
      Davis               31   35343644

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1020 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Dec    12    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Dec     5    Quiet
03 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across 
the Australian region for 30 Nov. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
are expected for 01 Dec with possible Active periods due to the 
effects of southern hemisphere coronal hole. Mostly Quiet conditions 
forecast for 02-03 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions ranging from slight enhancements 
to notable depressed MUFs by 30% observed over the last 24 hours. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Nov   -13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      4
Nov      5
Dec      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Dec   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30%
02 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions ranging from slight enhancements 
for Equatorial region and notable depressed MUFs of 30% for Northern 
AUS region observed over the last 24 hours. Sporadic E and Spread 
F were also observed at times across the Australian region. Similar 
conditions may be observed today,01 Dec. Mostly near predicted 
monthly values MUFs for 02-03 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 407 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:    67300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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