[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 22 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 23 09:30:23 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Several 
B-class and three C-class flares were observed. All the C-flares 
(C1.0 at 1113UT, C1.9 at 1750UT and C1.9 at 1937) came from region 
2671 from its respective locations at N09W33, N09W37 and N10W38 
at the time of these flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available LASCO imagery over the last 24 hours. Solar 
wind speed increased from 560 km/s to nearly 640 km/s by 0700UT 
today (UT day 22 August). The north-south component of IMF, Bz 
stayed mostly negative up to around -9nT during this period. 
This resulted in some periods of enhancements in geomagnetic 
activity to active levels and some short periods of minor and 
major geomagnetic storms. Solar wind then showed a gradual decrease to 490 
km/s by 2300UT, while Bz stayed mostly between +/-4nT during 
this period. Solar wind speed is expected to decline over the 
next 24-48 hours due to waning influence of the coronal hole. 
Low to moderate solar activity is expected over the next three 
days (23 to 25 August) with further C-class events possible and 
the chance of M-class activity on all these days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   44323212
      Cocos Island        10   33313212
      Darwin              11   34323112
      Townsville          12   44322122
      Learmonth           16   45323113
      Alice Springs       14   44323113
      Norfolk Island      10   34322112
      Culgoora            13   44323212
      Gingin              13   34323213
      Camden              14   44422212
      Launceston          15   44333213
      Hobart              12   34323212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    29   55545202
      Casey               18   54333213
      Mawson              59   67643446
      Davis               45   66443446

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             11   3333 2123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug    12    Quiet to active
24 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled
25 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Due to unexpected enhancements in solar wind parameters 
during the first seven hours of the UT day today (22 August), 
geomagnetic activity increased to active levels with some short 
periods of minor and major storms. Geomagnetic activity may remain 
enhanced to active levels on 23 August as the solar wind stream 
is still going strong. Geomagnetic activity is expected to show 
gradual decline to unsettled levels on 24 and then to quiet levels 
on 25 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were near predicted monthly 
values with periods of minor enhancements over the last 24 hours. 
Nearly similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days (23 
to 25 August).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Aug    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
 
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      10
Aug      6
Sep      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug    18    Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were near predicted monthly 
values with periods of minor enhancements in the Aus/NZ region 
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions are expected 
in the regions for the next 3 days (23 to 25 August).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:38%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 581 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:   444000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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