[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 21 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 22 09:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 89/33 89/33 89/33
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. New region
2672 (N07E61) was the source of a C5.9 flare at 0316 UT. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 700
km/s to nearly 520 km/s by 2100UT and then increased to 650 km/s
by the time of this report. The north-south component of IMF,
Bz fluctuated mostly between +3/-3nT over the UT day. Solar wind
speed is expected to decline over the next 24-48 hours due to
waning influence of the coronal hole. Low to Moderate solar activity
is expected over the next three days with further C-class events
possible and the chance of M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22221222
Cocos Island 5 11221222
Darwin 6 22221212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22221222
Alice Springs 6 22221222
Norfolk Island 5 22221111
Culgoora 6 22221222
Gingin 8 22221332
Camden 7 22321222
Canberra 4 12221111
Launceston 9 22332222
Hobart 8 22331212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 32321001
Casey 12 34322223
Mawson 30 44333356
Davis 21 23343226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 25 5634 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Aug 6 Quiet
24 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels with
some unsettled periods over the last 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled
levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 22 August with
the possibility of decline of the activity to mostly quiet levels
on 23 and 24 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum User Frequencies were near predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum User Frequencies were near predicted monthly
values in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
conditions are expected in the regions for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 725 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 786000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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