[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 August 17 issued 2348 UT on 19 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 20 09:48:39 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
2671 (N12E09) was the source of numerous C-class events, the
largest being a C7.0 at 2155UT. Region 2671 remains the only
active region on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed remains elevated due to the influence of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream and its average speed
increased from ~600km/s at 00UT to be ~750km/s at the time of
this report. The north-south component of IMF, Bz fluctuated
between -7nT and +6nT with some sustained southward periods during
the first half of the UT day. Solar wind speeds are expected
to remain elevated for the next 2 days. Low to Moderate solar
activity is expected over the next three days with further C-class
events possible and the chance of M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 18 33444323
Cocos Island 14 32433412
Darwin 17 33434323
Townsville 23 43544333
Learmonth 26 33545433
Alice Springs 24 33545333
Norfolk Island 19 42444323
Culgoora 17 32444323
Gingin 23 33445433
Camden 17 32444323
Canberra 17 32444323
Launceston 28 33555433
Hobart 26 33545433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
Macquarie Island 49 43666633
Casey 35 44443723
Mawson 68 66655547
Davis 57 65444647
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 72 (Active)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 24 5313 4462
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 24 Active
21 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
22 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 39 was issued on 19 August and
is current for 19-20 Aug. Quiet to Active geomagnetic activity
with Minor Storm periods between 08UT-14UT observed across the
Australian region over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be Unsettled to Active for 20Aug-21Aug due to
continued coronal hole effects with the chance of further Minor
Storm periods 20Aug. A decline in geomagnetic activity is expected
by 22Aug where conditions are expected to range from Quiet to
Unsettled due to diminishing influence of the coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions over the last 24 hours with minor
to moderate MUF enhancements and depressions for Low to Mid latitudes.
Disturbed conditions for High latitudes. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
22 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 19 August
and is current for 19-20 Aug. Variable HF conditions observed
over the last 24 hours with moderate MUF enhancements and depressions
for Northern AUS to Southern AUS/NZ regions. Disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity.
Similar conditions are expected for the 20Aug-22Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 579 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 352000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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