[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 30 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 31 10:30:52 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: YELLOW
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 30 October.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
days. No Earthward bound CMEs observed with available SOHO imagery.
DSCOVR plots show the solar wind speed in a jittery decline from
660 to 550 km/s over the last 24 hours and is currently 550 km/s.
The total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bt varied from
4 to 7 nT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +4/-7
nT with periods of prolonged negative Bz, particularly during
the first half of the UT day. The large recurrent positive polarity
coronal hole has nearly rotated around the west limb with the
southern part still geoeffective. Expect the solar wind to remain
elevated today, 31 October, however to tend toward a decline
with a return to nominal levels on 01-02 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 32234332
Cocos Island 9 22223330
Darwin 12 22234331
Townsville 12 32234322
Learmonth 15 22235332
Alice Springs 13 32234332
Norfolk Island 9 22333221
Culgoora 11 33233222
Gingin 16 32235332
Camden 14 33334322
Canberra 8 22233221
Launceston 18 33335332
Hobart 13 233341--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 34 35366422
Casey 24 55443322
Mawson 45 35434376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 48 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 28 5643 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
01 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was Quiet
to Active with isolated cases of Minor Storm levels in the Antarctic
region over the UT day, 30 October. Dst index indicates substorming
in progress, dipping to ~-55 nT at times. Expect Unsettled to
Active conditions in the Australian region with isolated cases
of Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes for the next UT day,
31 October, followed by Unsettled to Quiet conditions for 01-02
November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Fair-poor
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to depressed MUFs were observed for the UT day,
30 October. Expect these conditions to prevail today, 31 October
with some degradation in HF communication at high altitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
01 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
02 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 30 October
and is current for 31 Oct to 1 Nov. Normal to depressed MUFs
were observed for the UT day, 30 October, in the Aus/NZ region.
Current depressions are associated with low levels of ionising
radiation and geomagnetic activity resulting in ionospheric storming.
Expect these conditions to prevail for today, 31 October with
some degradation in HF communication at high latitudes. Note,
there were periods of sporadic E observed in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: N/A
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: N/A
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: N/A
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: N/A
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 620 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 194000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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