[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 29 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 30 10:30:58 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Oct             31 Oct             01 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 29 October. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low with a slight chance 
of C-class X-ray flares for the next three days. No Earthward 
bound CMEs observed with available SOHO imagery. DSCOVR plots 
show the solar wind speed ranging from 525 to 725 km/s over the 
last 24 hours and is currently 650km/s. The total Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field (IMF) Bt varied from 10 to 5 nT. The Bz component 
of the IMF fluctuated between +6/-9 nT with periods of prolonged 
negative Bz, particularly during the first half of the UT day. 
The large recurrent positive polarity coronal hole remains geoeffective 
and the solar wind is expected to remain elevated today, 30 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   33333222
      Cocos Island         9   33232121
      Darwin              12   33333222
      Townsville          13   33333322
      Learmonth           15   33334332
      Alice Springs       12   33333222
      Norfolk Island      11   23333222
      Culgoora            12   33333222
      Gingin              16   43334223
      Camden              16   33434322
      Canberra             9   22333212
      Launceston          20   34444323
      Hobart              16   34434222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    37   45655432
      Casey               22   55433223
      Mawson              71   87634344

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             32                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             16   3233 3344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Oct    20    Active
31 Oct    12    Unsettled
01 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was predominately 
Quiet to Unsettled with isolated cases of Active levels and reached 
Storm levels at Mawson in the Antarctic region over the UT day, 
29 October. Dst index indicates substorming in progress, dipping 
to ~-80 nT at times. Expect Unsettled to Active conditions in 
the Australian region with isolated cases of Minor Storm levels 
at higher latitudes for the next UT day, 30 October, followed 
by Unsettled conditions for 31 October - 01 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to depressed MUFs were observed for the UT day, 
29 October. Expect these conditions to prevail for the next couple 
days with some degradation in HF communication.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Oct    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      30
Oct      30
Nov      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
31 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
01 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 27 October 
and is current for 28-30 Oct. Normal to depressed MUFs were observed 
for the UT day, 29 October, in the Aus/NZ region. Current depressions 
are associated with low levels of ionising radiation and geomagnetic 
activity resulting in ionospheric storming. Expect these conditions 
to prevail for the next three days with some degradation in HF 
communication. Note, there were periods of sporadic E observed 
in the Australian region, particularly over Hobart station between 
09-15UT.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   NA
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  NA
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: NA

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 595 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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