[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 October 16 issued 2352 UT on 25 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 26 10:52:26 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Oct             27 Oct             28 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              76/14

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 25 October. 
Currently there is only one significant sunspot group on the 
Sun, AR2603, which has doubled in area over the last 24 hours 
to 60 mils. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low 
for the next couple days. San Vito and Learmonth Solar Observatories 
reported two disappearing solar filaments that have no associated 
CMEs and are not expected to be geoeffective. SOHO C2 imagery 
showed a CME on the NW limb beginning at 24/2148UT associated 
with an erupting filament observed via SDO AIA 304 imagery. Another 
CME was observed on the east limb beginning at 25/1912UT, expected 
to be associated with activity around the east limb on the far 
side of the Sun. Neither are expected to be Earthward bound, 
pending further analysis. Solar wind speed increased from 400km/s 
to just over 800km/s during the last 24 hours as expected due 
to the large recurrent positive polarity coronal hole becoming 
geoeffective (preceded by CIR at ~0830UT). Over this period the 
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has been oriented away from 
the Sun and the B field varied between 6 and 20 nT. The Bz component 
of the IMF was predominantly negative during the first half of 
the UT day, 25 October, and fluctuated between negative and positive 
for the second half of the UT day, dipping to -17nT mid way through 
the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated 
for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Major 
Storm

Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      28   22356434
      Cocos Island        23   22245534
      Darwin              21   22255433
      Townsville          23   23355433
      Learmonth           33   22356535
      Alice Springs       25   22255534
      Norfolk Island      18   22345333
      Culgoora            23   22255434
      Gingin              36   32356545
      Camden              28   22356434
      Canberra            28   22356434
      Launceston          35   33366444
      Hobart              34   23366444    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    50   33457654
      Casey               28   34445444
      Mawson             102   54466868

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            64   (Active)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        37
           Planetary             60                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             18   3332 5224     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Oct    40    Active to Minor Storm
27 Oct    40    Active to Minor Storm
28 Oct    20    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 24 October 
and is current for 25-27 Oct. Geomagnetic activity ranged between 
Quiet and Major Storm levels over the UT day, 25 October. Dst 
index indicate substorming in progress, dipping to ~-70nT at 
times. Expect the geomagnetic conditions to remain at Unsettled 
to Minor Storm levels for the next three days with a possibility 
of isolated periods of Major Storm levels in the high latitudes 
due to the increase in the solar wind speed associated with a 
large coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Fair           Poor-fair      Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
27 Oct      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
28 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mildly depressed to depressed MUFs were observed for 
the UT day, 25 October. Similar conditions are expected over 
the next three days due to very low levels of ionising radiation 
and rise in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Oct     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      30
Oct      30
Nov      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Oct   -20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
27 Oct   -20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Oct   -20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 24 October 
and is current for 25-27 Oct. Mildly depressed to depressed MUFs 
were observed for the UT day, 25 October, in the Aus/NZ region. 
Current depressions are most likely associated with low levels 
of ionising radiation and a rise in geomagnetic activity resulting 
in ionospheric storming. Similar conditions are expected over 
the next three days. Note there were isolated periods of sporadic 
E observed in the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    9.5 p/cc  Temp:   146000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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