[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 24 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 25 10:30:24 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Oct             26 Oct             27 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              74/11              73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Currently there is only one sunspot group on the Sun, AR2603, 
with an area of 30 mils. Solar activity is expected to remain 
Very Low for the next three days. San Vito Solar Observatory 
reported an eleven degree disappearing solar filament at approximately 
S34W24 between 24/0657UT and 24/1057UT, however, SOHO C2 imagery 
showed no associated CME. Furthermore no Earthward directed CME 
observed over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased 
from 450km/s to 370 km/s during the last 24 hours and is currently 
around 390 km/s. Over this period the Interplanetary Magnetic 
Field (IMF) has been oriented away from the Sun and ranged between 
5 and 10 nT. The Bz component of the IMF was predominantly negative 
and varied between +6 and -8 nT. Mid way through the UT day, 
25 October, expect a corotating interaction region preceding 
a high speed solar wind stream due to a large positive polarity 
coronal hole extending from the solar north pole across the equatorial 
region into the southern hemisphere of the Sun. The solar wind 
speed is expected to gradually increase to just over 700 km/s 
over the next couple of days, analysis based on previous rotations.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22334212
      Cocos Island         6   22223210
      Darwin               7   21233211
      Townsville          11   22334212
      Learmonth           10   22234212
      Alice Springs       10   12334211
      Norfolk Island      10   22234212
      Culgoora            11   ---24222
      Gingin               9   22224212
      Camden              11   22334212
      Canberra            10   22334211
      Launceston          16   23435212
      Hobart              13   23325212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    23   24436410
      Casey               13   34333212
      Mawson              27   44534335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   1131 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Oct    30    Active to Minor Storm
26 Oct    35    Active to Minor Storm
27 Oct    35    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged between Quiet and Active 
over the UT day, 24 October. Expect the geomagnetic activity 
to increase over the next three days due to an increase in the 
solar wind speed associated with a large coronal hole. Activity 
will very between Unsettled and Major Storm conditions during 
this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
26 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
27 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were observed for the UT day, 
24 October. Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected over 
the next three days due to very low levels of ionising radiation 
and expected rise in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Oct     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      30
Oct      30
Nov      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
26 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
27 Oct   -10    About 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions 
for the UT day, 24 October. Current depressions are most likely 
associated with low levels of ionising radiation. Minor to Moderate 
MUF depressions are expected for the next three days due to an 
increase in geomagnetic activity and low levels of ionising radiation. 
Note there were isolated periods of sporadic E observed in the 
Australian region mainly in the latter half of the UT day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    7.8 p/cc  Temp:   300000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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