[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 04 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 5 10:30:21 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Oct             06 Oct             07 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
A CME observed in SOHO and STEREO imagery is not Earth-directed. 
Solar activity is likely to remain very low over the next 3 days. 
The solar wind speed remained mostly above 500 km/s, peaking 
~~600 km/s, currently ~530 km/s. The total IMF strength peaked 
around 10 nT, currently 5 nT. The BZ component was mostly southward 
0-12 UT, dipping to around -7 nT. Since then Bz has varied -6 
to +9 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet to Minor 
storm

Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   23244232
      Cocos Island         9   22133232
      Darwin              14   23244232
      Townsville          15   23244233
      Learmonth           18   23155232
      Alice Springs       14   23244232
      Norfolk Island      10   23233222
      Gingin              20   32155242
      Camden              13   23244222
      Canberra            11   23243222
      Launceston          20   24355222
      Hobart              15   23254222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    32   35565222
      Casey               15   33334233
      Mawson              65   77454365

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             26                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             11   2431 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Oct    18    Unsettled to Active
06 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: A long period of southward IMF Bz produced active to 
minor storm conditions across Australia on 4-Oct from 09-15 UT, 
with mostly quiet to unsettled conditions outside that period. 
Storm level conditions were observed for much of the UT day at 
high latitudes. Conditions in the Australian region are expected 
to be quiet to unsettled on 5-6 Oct and quiet on 7-Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Poor-normal    Poor-normal    Poor-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair
06 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
07 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed on 4-Oct at high 
latitudes throughout the UT day, due to increased geomagnetic 
disturbance.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Oct    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      30
Oct      34
Nov      34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF nighttime depressions were observed 
across the Australian region on 4-Oct. Similar conditions are 
likely on 5-Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 502 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   322000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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