[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 October 16 issued 2335 UT on 03 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 4 10:35:15 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected
to remain very low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
remains elevated at around 520 km/s. The IMF total strength is
around 6 nT, while the Bz component has been varying +/-5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22212222
Cocos Island 7 22212231
Darwin 7 22213222
Townsville 9 23313222
Learmonth 8 22213232
Alice Springs 7 22203222
Norfolk Island 5 22202221
Gingin 8 22212332
Camden 6 22212222
Canberra 5 12202222
Launceston 9 22313223
Hobart 6 22212222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie Island 10 22313332
Casey 18 54323332
Mawson 33 34523564
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20 3332 4254
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
05 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions across the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on 3-Oct. Some storm-level periods were observed
in the Antarctic. Similar conditions are likely on 4-Oct, with
a trend to quieter conditions in the Australian region over 5-6
Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are likely to improve gradually
over the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 34
Nov 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
05 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
the Australian region on 3-Oct. Support for HF communications
is likely to improve gradually over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E-06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.0E+09
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 518 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 296000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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