[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 01 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 2 10:30:40 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              85/27

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 1 October, with no notable flares. There are no numbered 
sunspot region on the visible solar disk. The three day outlook 
(2-4 October) is for very low solar activity with very weak chance 
of C-class flares. A disappearing solar filament,approximately 
39 degrees long, was observed on the northeast quadrant (N19E09 
- N31E46) beginning from 01/0133 UT and ending near 01/0302 UT. 
This event seems to have triggered a CME, beginning at 01/0248 
UT in the LASCO coronagraph imagery. Information on the impact 
of this CME at Earth, if any, will be provided upon completion 
of the model runs. The solar wind speeds during the past 24 hours 
had continued to decline as coronal hole effects wane, changing 
from ~650 km/s at the beginning of the UT day to 550 km/s by 
01/2300 UT. The north-south component of the Interplanetary Magnetic 
Field (IMF) fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT, and was weakly southwards 
for most parts of the UT day. Bt was steady near 5 nT at most 
times, except for some weak fluctuation between 01/1700 UT and 
01/1900 UT . The two day outlook (2 -3 October) is for the solar 
winds to continue to trend towards ambient levels as the coronal 
effects wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   23223232
      Cocos Island         7   13212231
      Darwin               8   13222232
      Townsville          11   23233232
      Learmonth           10   23223232
      Alice Springs        9   23222232
      Norfolk Island       9   23232222
      Gingin              11   23223332
      Camden              10   13233232
      Canberra             7   13222221
      Launceston          12   24233232
      Hobart              10   13233231    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    19   23354341
      Casey               16   44332323
      Mawson              65   35543586

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18   4433 2342     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct    16    Active
03 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity over the Australian region 
were mostly at unsettled to active levels during the UT day 1 
October, and only briefly reached minor storm levels near 01/0400 
UT. The Australian region Dst index dipped to a low of -65 nT 
at near 01/0430 UT. These fluctuations in geomagnetic conditions 
are associated with moderately strong solar wind speeds in excess 
of 500 km/s emanating from a large positive polarity coronal 
hole. The two day outlook (2-3 October) is for the geomagnetic 
activity to be mostly between unsettled and active levels as 
the coronal hole effects continue to wane.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Fair-poor
03 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Observed MUF's were depressed over most regions, with 
strongest degradations in the mid and high latitudes regions. 
Similar HF conditions are expected today, 2 October.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Oct    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      30
Oct      34
Nov      34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct     0    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Oct    10    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Oct    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's were strongly depressed over most Australian 
regions throughout the UT day 1 October. The HF depression even 
extended into the equatorial regions. These depression are associated 
with the observed disturbed geomagnetic conditions driven by 
a very large positive polarity coronal hole. Slightly improved 
MUFs, though still near depressed levels compared to monthly 
predicted values, are expected for the next two days (2-3 October) 
as the ionosphere slowly replenishes from the aftermath of series 
of substorms associated with the coronal hole.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:37%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 665 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:   824000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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