[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 September 16 issued 2338 UT on 30 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 1 09:38:02 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Oct             02 Oct             03 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 30 September, with no notable flares. The only active sunspot 
region (Region 2597) will soon rotate to the rearward side of 
the sun. Thus, the three day outlook (1-3 October) is for very 
low solar activity with only slight chance of C-class flares. 
A CME was observed around 29/2024 in available coronagraph imagery. 
Our preliminary investigation indicates that this CME could be 
triggered from active Region 2597. Thus based on location of 
CME source region (S14W78), it is unlikely that this CME will 
impact Earth. Further confirmation will be provided upon completion 
of the model runs. The solar wind speeds during the past 24 hours 
had exhibited a gradual declining trend, changing from ~800 km/s 
at the beginning of the UT day to 600 km/s by 30/2300 UT. This 
is suggestive of the beginning of the waning effects of the coronal 
hole. The north-south component of the Interplanetary Magnetic 
Field (IMF) fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT, and was weakly southwards 
since 30/1530 UT. Bt was steady near 5 nT. The two day outlook 
(1 -2 October) is for the solar winds to continue to trend towards 
lower speeds as the coronal effects wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   22343332
      Darwin              11   22332332
      Townsville          13   22343332
      Learmonth           15   22343342
      Alice Springs       12   22342332
      Norfolk Island       9   22332231
      Gingin              17   32343442
      Camden              14   32343332
      Canberra            10   22332331
      Launceston          18   33443342
      Hobart              14   32343332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    22   23454441
      Casey               36   44443373
      Mawson              47   45543475

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              51   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            42   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             38   4555 4643     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Oct    20    Active
02 Oct    16    Active
03 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 29 September 
and is current for 29 Sep to 1 Oct. The geomagnetic activity 
over the Australian region were mostly at unsettled to active 
levels during the UT day 30 September. These fluctuations in 
geomagnetic conditions are associated with very strong solar 
wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s emanating from a large positive 
polarity coronal hole. The two day outlook (1-2 October) is for 
the geomagnetic activity to be mostly between unsettled and active 
levels, but occasionally could reach minor storm levels, as the 
coronal hole effects begins to wane.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
02 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Observed MUF's were near predicted monthly values over 
the equatorial regions and strongly depressed in the mid and 
high latitudes regions. Similar HF conditions are expected today, 
1 October.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Sep    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      29
Sep      35
Oct      34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Oct     0    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
02 Oct     5    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Oct    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 29 September 
and is current for 29 Sep to 1 Oct. Observed MUF's were strongly 
depressed over most Australian regions throughout the UT day 
30 September except on the day side for the equatorial Australian 
regions. These depression are associated with the observed disturbed 
geomagnetic conditions driven by a very large positive polarity 
coronal hole. Slightly improved MUFs, though still near depressed 
levels compared to monthly predicted values, are expected for 
the next two days (1-2 October) as the ionosphere gradually recovers 
from the aftermath of storms associated with the coronal hole.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 702 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:   909000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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