[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 18 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 19 10:30:27 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Nov             20 Nov             21 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar X-ray flux remains at nominal level with very 
low solar activity. An active prominence was observed on the 
West limb. There are currently two numbered sunspot regions, 
both small in extent and with simple magnetic structure. Solar 
wind speed declined from 400 to 320 km/s over the UT day. The 
IMF Bz component was mostly neutral. The anticipated moderate 
coronal hole wind stream has not yet eventuated but is expected 
early on the UT day 19 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10000101
      Cocos Island         1   11000100
      Darwin               0   10000001
      Townsville           1   11000111
      Learmonth            1   20000101
      Alice Springs        1   10000101
      Norfolk Island       1   10000011
      Gingin               2   11000201
      Camden               1   11000110
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   11010110
      Hobart               0   10000100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   11000100
      Casey                9   34311211
      Mawson               9   33111323

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active
20 Nov    12    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet with Unsettled 
periods at high latitudes. An anticipated coronal hole wind stream 
onset is expected early on day one, bringing Unsettled conditions 
with possible active intervals. Recurrence suggests the elevated 
conditions could persist into day two with conditions declining 
by day three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours ranging 
from notable depressions to near predicted monthly values. Significant 
depressions observed South Atlantic region during local night. 
Moderate depressions in the Australasian region at low latitudes 
mainly in daylight hours. Variable disturbance possible at high 
latitudes next three days due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Nov     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      10
Nov      26
Dec      25

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Nov     5    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Nov     5    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Nov    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on 18 November 
and is current for 19 Nov only. Depressed HF conditions observed 
local daylight hours over the Northern Australian region for 
the UT day, 18 November. Expect variable MUF depressions/enhancements 
at low latitudes due to low solar EUV radiation over the next 
three UT days, 19-21 November. Expect possible minor degradations 
in HF communications mainly at high latitudes 19-20 November 
due to weak geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 394 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    41300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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