[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 21 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 22 09:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Low
Flares: C class flare
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was low during 21 May UT.
Active Region 2546 produced the largest flare of the day, a C1.0
event peak at 14:00 UT. AR 2546 also produced three B class flares.
AR 2546 may produce another C class flare during the next 2 days.
Under the influence of a positive coronal hole, the solar wind
speed slowly increased to nearly 600 km/s during 21 May. The
magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between
about 3 nT and 10 nT. The southward component of the IMF decreased
to Bz = -9 nT during an interval of sustained southward conditions,
04-08 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 9 23322321
Cocos Island 7 23322210
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 10 23323321
Learmonth 10 23332321
Alice Springs 6 12322220
Norfolk Island 8 23322220
Gingin 10 23332321
Camden 9 13322321
Canberra 6 12322220
Melbourne 8 12332320
Launceston 12 23333331
Hobart 8 12332320
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 May :
Macquarie Island 20 13553420
Casey 10 33322321
Mawson 27 55543323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3221 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 15 Unsettled to Active
23 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled throughout
the Australian region during 21 May UT. A short-lived Australian
region Dst storm of magnitude 58 nT occurred during 06-08 UT.
Globally, conditions briefly reached minor storm levels (Kp=5)
during 06-09 UT. This was due to a brief interval of sustained
Bz southward conditions. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be unsettled to active (Kp=4) today, 22 May, decreasing to
quiet to unsettled on 23 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere
during 22 May UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 35 5 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 May 40 5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 May 40 5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region during 21 May UT.
Strong spread F conditions occurred at Hobart and Darwin last
night AEST. Conditions are expected to remain mildly depressed
today, 22 May UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 72100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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