[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 20 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 21 09:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was very low during 20 May
UT. Active Region 2546 increased in magnetic complexity and produced
many low level B class flares. Solar flare activity is expected
to be very low with a fair chance of a C class flare during the
next 2 days. The frontal disturbance ahead of fast solar wind
emanating from Coronal Hole 735 proved to be weak. No strong
solar wind disturbances are expected to arrive at Earth during
the next 3 days. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) varied between about 4 nT and 10 nT during 20 May
and the southward component Bz was predominantly northward. There
were brief excursions of Bz to about -5 nT. The solar wind speed
is currently about 430 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 3 22111011
Cocos Island 2 12111001
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 4 22211012
Learmonth 4 22211011
Alice Springs 4 22211021
Norfolk Island 2 22110001
Gingin 3 22210011
Camden 3 22111011
Canberra 2 12110001
Melbourne 2 22110001
Launceston 3 22111001
Hobart 2 22110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
Macquarie Island 1 11110000
Casey 8 24321011
Mawson 10 24331013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 14 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2133 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet throughout the Australian
region during 20 May UT. Global conditions were quiet to unsettled.
The maximum Kp value was 3. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet to unsettled during the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mildly depressed in both Hemispheres for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 30 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
22 May 35 5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 May 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region during 20 May UT.
Strong spread F conditions occurred at Hobart and Darwin last
night AEST. Conditions are expected to remain mildly depressed
during the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 50500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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