[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 01 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 2 09:30:33 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
single C2 X-ray flare from region 2539(N15E20), peaking at 0922UT.
This region increased in area and magnetic complexity (Beta Gamma
magnetic class) over the past 24 hours. Expect Low solar activity
next three days with a slight chance of an isolated low level
M-class flare. No significant CMEs were observed in available
LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed increased slightly during
the second part of the UT day, currently ~450km/s. The IMF Bz
was southward during the second half of the UT day, reaching
a maximum of -10nT at 1352UT. Solar wind Parameters are likely
to remain disturbed over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 10 21123333
Cocos Island 9 21113333
Darwin 8 21222332
Townsville 11 22223333
Learmonth 11 22223333
Alice Springs 10 12223333
Norfolk Island 8 21122332
Gingin 15 21224434
Camden 10 22123333
Canberra 2 1101----
Launceston 14 22223443
Hobart 11 21123433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
Macquarie Island 14 21124443
Casey 13 33323323
Mawson 29 43323456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1122 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 15 Quiet to Active.
03 May 7 Quiet
04 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet across the Australian
region on 1 May until around 12 UT, when conditions became Unsettled
with Active periods at higher latitudes in response to a prolonged
southwards IMF Bz starting from 10UT. Similar geomagnetic conditions
are expected on UT day 2 May as the solar wind speeds are increasing
in response to the Northern Hemisphere coronal hole and a gradual
return to Quiet conditions over the 3-4 May period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 May Normal-fair Normal Normal
04 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Possible mild depressed periods for mid to high latitudes
over the 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 40 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 50 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day 1 May,
were recovered at all Australian regions, except near the equatorial
regions (Niue island). The incoming solar radiation causing the
ionisation is increasing and this is maintaining a good HF propagation
conditions. HF conditions are expected to recover to nearly monthly
predicted values by UT day 4 May. The mid and high latitude regions
might experience mild depressions in response to ongoing Active
geomagnetic activity today, 2 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 37200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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