[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 16 issued 2331 UT on 30 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 1 09:31:55 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, the largest
event being a C1 X-ray flare from region 2539(N17E38), peaking
at 1047UT. No significant CMEs were observed in available LASCO
imagery. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity next three days
but with an increased chance of C-class flares. The solar wind
speed increased slightly, currently ~425km/s. The Bz component
has been mostly negative since around 06UT. Enhancement in the
solar wind speed is anticipated in the coming hours due to coronal
hole effects and minor glancing blow from 28 Apr CME activity
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 12213222
Cocos Island 5 12211122
Darwin 5 12212122
Townsville 7 12213222
Learmonth 6 12213122
Alice Springs 6 02213222
Norfolk Island 4 01113211
Gingin 6 01203232
Camden 6 12113222
Canberra 4 01103122
Launceston 7 12213222
Hobart 6 01213222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
Macquarie Island 6 00014311
Casey 7 12213222
Mawson 14 32113235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Melbourne 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 3
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 20 Quiet to Active with a chance of minor Storm
levels.
02 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled.
03 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 29 April and
is current for 30 Apr to 1 May. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Active with possible
Minor Storm levels today, 1 May due to anticipated arrival of
a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream and a possible minor
glancing blow from 28 Apr CME activity. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 2 May decreasing to Quiet during 3 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
02 May Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
03 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely over the next 3 days with
periods of disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 May 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild night time depressions observed in northern Australia
and Equatorial regions. On UT days 1-2 May, the mid and high
latitude regions could experience mild depressions in response
to the expected active geomagnetic conditions today, 1 May. HF
conditions are expected to recover to nearly monthly predicted
values by UT day 3 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 33000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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