[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 23 10:30:31 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Mar             24 Mar             25 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on 22 March. Expect 
solar activity to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 days 
with a chance of C-class flares. LASCO C2/C3 imagery showed no 
Earthward CMEs. Solar wind stream remained steady with densities 
varying in the range 3-20 particles per cubic cm. The solar wind 
speed varied in the range 380-450 km/s; currently 400 km/s. The 
IMF Bz component was positive on average and varied between +5 
and -5 nT over the same period. The IMF Bt was 3-7 nT. Expect 
similar conditions for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22221001
      Cocos Island         5   32221001
      Darwin               5   32221001
      Townsville           7   32232011
      Learmonth            6   32132001
      Norfolk Island       4   21221011
      Culgoora             4   22221011
      Gingin               3   21121001
      Canberra             4   22221001
      Launceston           5   22231002
      Hobart               5   22231001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     6   11340000
      Casey               12   34431012
      Mawson              16   34232125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2123 1322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Mar     4    Quiet
24 Mar     4    Quiet
25 Mar     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet for Australian 
region. In the Antarctic region there were isolated periods of 
Active levels. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next 3 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect MUFs to be slightly less than normal.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Mar    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                30%
24 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                30%
25 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in almost 
all areas in the Australian region on 22 March. Nearly similar 
conditions are expected for the next three days (23 to 25 March).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 413 km/sec  Density:    7.8 p/cc  Temp:    52700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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