[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 21 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 22 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on 21 March. Expect
solar activity to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 days
with a chance of C-class flares. LASCO C2/C3 imagery showed no
Earthward CMEs. Solar wind stream density remained steady up
to approximately 0400 UT with densities about 1 particle per
cubic cm, then it jumped up to 10-15 particles per cubic cm.
The solar wind speed remained steady varying in the range 380-450
km/s; currently 380 km/s. The Bz component of IMF varied between
+6 and -4 nT over the same period. Expect similar conditions
for the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 12212222
Cocos Island 4 12111221
Darwin 5 12122211
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22122222
Norfolk Island 5 12212121
Culgoora 5 12212212
Gingin 6 22112222
Canberra 4 11212111
Launceston 7 22222222
Hobart 5 12212212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 11222121
Casey 14 35322123
Mawson 22 53432235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 11 2211 2442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 4 Quiet
23 Mar 4 Quiet
24 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet for Australian region.
In the Antarctic region there were isolated periods of Active
to Minor Storm levels. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect MUFs to be slightly less than normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
23 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
24 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in almost
all areas in the Australian region on 21 March. Nearly similar
conditions are expected for the next three days (22 to 24 March).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 72000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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