[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 25 09:30:17 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day 24 June.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days.
No sunspots are visible on the solar disk at this time. LASCO
C2 imagery showed a CME on the northwest limb beginning at 24/0012UT.
The CME is not expected to be geoeffective. Over the last 24
hours the solar wind speed varied around 500 km/s. The total
IMF strength varied between 8nT and 4nT during the last 24 hours,
currently ~4nT. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-7nT
and with prolonged weak negative periods. Expect the solar wind
to remain elevated today, 25 June, followed by a gradual return
to nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 23322222
Cocos Island 5 22221111
Darwin 7 22322212
Townsville 9 23322222
Learmonth 8 23222222
Alice Springs 8 23320---
Norfolk Island 6 ---32111
Gingin 10 23322223
Camden 7 ----2222
Canberra 7 22322221
Melbourne 10 22333222
Launceston 11 23333222
Hobart 8 22332221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
Macquarie Island 14 24443211
Casey 11 33332222
Mawson 35 55542236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3300 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 12 Unsettled
26 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across
the Australian region for the UT day, 24 June. Expect Quiet to
Unsettled conditions today, 25 June with isolated periods of
Active levels in the higher latitudes. Expect a gradual return
to mostly Quiet conditions on 26-27 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative
to monthly predicted values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild depressions to near predicted monthly values were
observed in the Australian region during the UT day 24 June.
MUFs were near predicted monthly values for the Antarctic region
with periods of little to no ionospheric support for HF communications.
Expect similar conditions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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