[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 16 issued 2334 UT on 23 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 24 09:34:01 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day 23 June. 
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days. 
LASCO C2 imagery shows a the beginning of a CME on the northeast 
limb at 23/2048UT. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speed varied between 340 
km/s and 500 km/s. ACE SWEPAM data indicates the Earth was influence 
by two separate coronal holes during this period as the solar 
wind initially reached ~460 km/s followed by a decrease to 340km/s 
then increasing again at ~1500UT to its current speed of ~500Km/s. 
The total IMF strength varied between 4nT and 10nT during the 
last 24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +7nT 
and -9nT, reaching -9nT at ~1530UT. Expect the solar wind to 
remain elevated for the next two days followed by a gradual return 
to nominal levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12100222
      Cocos Island         4   12111212
      Darwin               5   22110222
      Townsville           7   23111322
      Learmonth            5   22101222
      Alice Springs        5   13100222
      Norfolk Island       7   13---222
      Gingin               4   12100222
      Camden               5   13101222
      Canberra             3   12000222
      Melbourne            4   12101222
      Launceston           6   13100223
      Hobart               3   12000222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   01000222
      Casey               13   33211252
      Mawson              30   35211337

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           10   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             14   1101 2354     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun    12    Unsettled
25 Jun    12    Unsettled
26 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet across the 
Australian region for the UT day, 23 June. Expect Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions today and tomorrow with isolated periods of Active 
levels in the higher latitudes. Expect a gradual return to mostly 
Quiet conditions on 26 June.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period 
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative 
to monthly predicted values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jun    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      32
Jun      44
Jul      43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
25 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
26 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed in the Australian region 
during the UT day 23 June. MUFs were near predicted monthly values 
for the Antarctic region with periods of little to no ionospheric 
support for HF communications during the long local night hours. 
Expect similar conditions during the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 353 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:    31600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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