[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 16 issued 2337 UT on 21 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 22 09:37:38 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day 21 June.
Expect Solar activity to remain Very Low during the next three
days. C2 imagery showed a large CME on the northwest Limb beginning
at 21/0424UT, it is not expected to be geoeffective. The solar
wind speed gradually declined from just over 400 km/s to just
under 400 km/s. The total IMF strength ranged between 3-4 nT.
The Bz component varied between +/-2 nT. The coronal hole in
the southern hemisphere within 20 degrees of the equator does
not appear to be geoeffective and has gone beyond 40 degrees
west of the central meridian. Expect the solar wind speed to
remain at nominal speeds for the next two days 22-23 June. On
24 June expect the solar wind to increase due to a northern coronal
hole becoming geoeffective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 01001000
Cocos Island 1 02010000
Darwin 1 11111000
Townsville 1 11011001
Learmonth 1 00111000
Alice Springs 0 00100000
Norfolk Island 1 ---10010
Gingin 1 01001010
Camden 1 11101010
Canberra 0 00000000
Melbourne 0 10001000
Launceston 1 11101000
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 12111110
Mawson 3 11121111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1110 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jun 4 Quiet
23 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region for the UT day, 21 June. Expect Quiet conditions today,
22 June. Expect a gradual increase in activity on 23-24 June
with Unsettled conditions and isolated periods of Active levels,
particularly at high latitudes on 24 June due to an increase
in the solar wind speed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative
to monthly predicted values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jun 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed in the Australian region
during the UT day 21 June. MUFs were near predicted monthly values
for the Antarctic region, with periods of little to no ionospheric
support for HF communications. Expect similar conditions during
the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 63400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list