[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 21 09:30:17 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jun             22 Jun             23 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day 20 June. 
Expect Solar activity to remain Very Low to Low over the next 
three days. C2 and Stereo A imagery showed a large CME on the 
north (slightly west) Limb beginning at 20/1648UT. In addition 
there was material ejected on the south west limb near a streamer 
beginning at 19/2336UT. Neither is expected to be geo-effective. 
The solar wind speed gradually declined from 500 km/s to 420 
km/s. The total IMF strength ranged between 2-5 nT. The Bz component 
varied between +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed may increase again 
late on 21 June to early on 22 June due to a southern hemisphere 
coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12100001
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               2   12110001
      Townsville           2   22110001
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Alice Springs        1   11100001
      Norfolk Island       0   ---00000
      Gingin               1   11100001
      Camden               2   12100001
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Melbourne            2   12100001
      Launceston           4   221---01
      Hobart               1   12100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey                4   22311000
      Mawson               6   13311012

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              15   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           33   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2221 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jun     6    Quiet
22 Jun    12    Unsettled
23 Jun    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian 
region on 20 June. Expect Quiet conditions today, 21 June until 
late in the UT day when the solar wind may increase due to a 
coronal becoming geo-effective. Late on 21 June to 23 June there 
may be Unsettle conditions with isolated cases of active conditions, 
particular at higher latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period 
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative 
to monthly predicted values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jun    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      32
Jun      44
Jul      43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
22 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
23 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed in northern Australian 
and equatorial regions during the UT day 20 June. MUFs were near 
predicted monthly values for southern Australia. The Antarctic 
region had periods of little to no ionospheric support for HF 
communications, but also periods of slightly enhanced support. 
Similar conditions are expected for 21-23 June. Noted periods 
sporadic E at Cocos Island and Hobart stations.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 538 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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