[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 9 09:30:30 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jun             10 Jun             11 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              82/23              85/27

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 8 June. There is currently one sunspot region (Region 2552) 
on the visible solar disc and it produced a weak B-class flare 
(B2.3) peaking at 08/0416. The two day outlook (9-10 June) is 
for solar activity to remain at very low levels with no notable 
flares expected. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available 
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speeds continue to trend 
towards ambient levels, declining from approximately 450 km/s 
at beginning of the UT day to near 400 km/s at 08/2350 UT. The moderately 
elevated solar winds are due to effects of high speed streams 
from the passage of the equatorial coronal hole. The Bz component 
of IMF was very weak, fluctuating between -3 and +3 nT during 
the past 24 hours. Bt was steady near 5 throughout the UT day. 
The outlook for 9 June is for the solar winds to continue trending 
towards background levels as the coronal hole effects wane. On 
late UT day 10 June or therefore, the solar winds are expected 
to start enhancing again as a Northern Hemisphere coronal hole 
approaches geoeffective location on the solar disk. In the previous 
rotation, this coronal hole caused daily mean solar wind 
speed of 516 km/s. Similar daily mean speeds are expected in 
this rotation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12122100
      Cocos Island         1   11011100
      Darwin               4   22122100
      Townsville           4   22122100
      Learmonth            4   22032100
      Alice Springs        4   22122100
      Norfolk Island       2   12021000
      Gingin               4   12032100
      Camden               5   12132101
      Canberra             4   12032000
      Melbourne            5   12120000
      Launceston           4   12132100
      Hobart               5   12032000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     5   11042000
      Casey                5   32222000
      Mawson              14   44234300

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8   2112 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jun     6    Quiet
10 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region 
were mostly at quiet levels during the past 24 hours (June 8). 
Similar conditions are expected today (9 June) and on early tomorrow 
(10 June). On late 10 June or therefore, expect conditions to 
become unsettled at times as the effects of high-speed stream 
from a Northern Hemisphere coronal hole becomes geoeffective. 
On UT day 11 June, mostly unsettled and at times reaching active 
geomagnetic levels are expected in response to the passage of 
the coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Depressed MUF periods compared to monthly predicted 
levels continued over the high latitude Northern Hemisphere regions 
in last 24 hours (8 June). Conditions are expected to improve 
slightly today (9 June) in the Northern Hemisphere regions as 
the 5th June geomagnetic storm effects wane. In contrast, weaker 
or no depression are expected in the Southern Hemisphere today 
9 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jun    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      32
Jun      44
Jul      43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: In the past 24 hours (08 June) mild to moderate MUF 
depressions were observed during the local night over the Equatorial 
and Northern Australian regions. MUF over the Southern Australian 
region were mostly near monthly predicted values. Slightly improved 
MUFs are expected for most Australian regions today, June 9. 
The outlook of 10-11 June is of HF conditions to remain near 
monthly predicted levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   138000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list