[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 8 09:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 7 June, with no flares. There are currently no active regions
on the visible solar disc. The two day outlook (8-9 June) is
for solar activity to remain at very low levels with no flaring
expected. A CME was observed around 07/1537 in available limited
coronagraph imagery. Our preliminary investigation indicates
that the CME could be triggered by a rear-side eruption. The
solar wind speeds had exhibited a weak declining trend, changing
from approximately 550 km/s at 07/0100 UT to about 450 km/s at
the time of writing this report (07/2350 UT). The moderately
elevated solar winds are due to effects of high speed streams
from the passage of the equatorial coronal hole. The Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT during the past 24 hours
and had been weakly southwards over the last 4 hours. Bt was
between 4 - 8 nT, current IMF magnitude is near 5 nT. The outlook
for next two days (8-9 June) is for the solar winds to gradually
trend towards background levels as the coronal hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 11121131
Cocos Island 5 11121231
Darwin 5 11121131
Townsville 6 22121131
Learmonth 6 12121232
Alice Springs 5 11121231
Norfolk Island 3 10121021
Gingin 8 22022242
Camden 5 11121131
Canberra 4 11021131
Melbourne 7 21132231
Launceston 7 21132231
Hobart 6 21032131
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 11042011
Casey 9 33221231
Mawson 22 43233255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 32 4744 4232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 7 Quiet
09 Jun 6 Quiet
10 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region
were mostly at quiet levels during the past 24 hours (June 7).
Similar conditions are expected over the next three day. However,
the solar winds are still moderately high today (June 8) due
to the waning effects of the coronal hole. Thus, a favourable
IMF Bz condition (prolonged southward directed) could cause minor
unsettled geomagnetic conditions as times.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal-fair Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strongly depressed MUF periods were observed over most
of the Northern Hemisphere region over the last 24 hours (7 June).
Conditions are expected to improve over the next 24 hours (8
June) in the Northern Hemisphere as the 5th June geomagnetic
storm effects wane. In contrast, weaker or no depression are
expected in the Southern Hemisphere today 8 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 38 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 44 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: During the past 24 hours (07 June) moderate MUF depressions
were observed during the local night over the Equatorial and
Northern Australian regions. MUF over the Southern Australian
region were mostly near monthly predicted values. Slightly improved
MUFs are expected today (08 June) for the most Australian regions.
The outlook of 9-10 June is of HF conditions to gradually recover
to near monthly predicted levels as the 5th June geomagnetic
storm effects wane.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 564 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 230000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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