[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 16 issued 2353 UT on 05 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 6 09:53:35 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 82/23
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours.
There are currently no numbered regions on the visible disc.
Solar wind speed gradually increased over the UT day under the
influence of a equatorial located, negative polarity, coronal
hole high speed stream. Solar wind was ~330km/s from 0000UT to
0845UT after which it began to increase to be ~550km/s at the
time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
at these levels over the next 24 hours. The north south component
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) had 2 notable sustained
southward periods, first being from 0715UT-0845UT ranging between
-5nT and -9nT and then from 1230UT to 1330UT ranging from -10nT
to -15nT. B_Total reached a maximum of 20nT at 14UT and has since
decreased to be 7nT while Bz is -2nT at the time of this report.
Expect Very Low to Low solar activity for the next 3 days with
the chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 10 12233332
Cocos Island 9 11233322
Darwin 10 22233322
Townsville 11 22233332
Learmonth 11 12233333
Alice Springs 11 12233333
Norfolk Island 9 11233232
Gingin 13 12224343
Camden 11 22233332
Canberra 10 12233332
Melbourne 10 12233332
Launceston 12 22233333
Hobart 9 11123333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
Macquarie Island 22 01236533
Casey 11 22223333
Mawson 40 33334575
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 9 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
07 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 4 June and
is current for 5-6 Jun. Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed
over the Australian region during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic
conditions ranging from Unsettled to Active periods for 06Jun
while solar speed remains elevated due to the prevailing influence
of the recent arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from
a recurrent, negative polarity equatorial located coronal hole.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 07Jun and mostly Quiet
conditions expected for 08Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal-fair Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
07 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
08 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUF periods observed for Low to Mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours with otherwise mostly normal HF propagation
conditions. Disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes
due to increased geomagnetic activity. Similar conditions expected
for Low latitudes over the next 3 days. Variable HF conditions
expected for Mid latitudes with possible enhancements to notable
MUF depressions on 06Jun with return to normal conditions expected
from 07Jun onwards. Fair to Poor HF conditions expected for High
latitudes over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 3 June
and is current for 5-6 Jun. Moderate MUF depressions were observed
for Equatorial and Northern Australian regions over the last
24 hours. MUFs were near predicted monthly values to slightly
depressed for Southern Australia/NZ regions, with disturbed periods
in the Antarctic. Similar conditions are expected on 06Jun for
Equatorial and Northern Australian regions. Variable ionospheric
support for Southern Australia/NZ region for 06Jun-07Jun ranging
from periods of enhancement to notable MUF depressions of ~20%,
returning to near predicted monthly values from 08Jun. Poor HF
conditions expected Antarctic regions for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 28800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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