[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 5 09:30:17 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
There are no active regions. Very low activity is expected for
the next 3 days. The solar wind speed hovered around 300 km/s
until around 22 UT, when coronal hole influences became apparent.
Around that time, proton density increased, the IMF total strength
kicked up from about 4 nT to 7 nT and the wind speed began to
drift upwards.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 00000011
Cocos Island 1 10000011
Darwin 1 10000012
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 0 00000011
Alice Springs 0 00000011
Norfolk Island 0 10000001
Gingin 1 00100021
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 0 00000011
Melbourne 1 01000011
Launceston 1 01000011
Hobart 0 00000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 2 12100021
Mawson 4 21100023
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 2 1100 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 50 Quiet to Minor Storm
06 Jun 20 Unsettled to Active
07 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 4 June and
is current for 5-6 Jun. Magnetic conditions were quiet across
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. These conditions
are expected to prevail until coronal hole effects come into
play early on 5-Jun, bringing active and possibly minor storm
periods, easing on 6-Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
06 Jun Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor
07 Jun Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 5-Jun, with some moderately depressed periods. Disturbed ionospheric
support was observed for high latitudes. An expected increase
in geomagnetic activity is likely to result in disturbed ionospheric
support and significant MUF depressions on 6-7 Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
06 Jun 10 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
07 Jun 10 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 3 June
and is current for 5-6 Jun. Moderate MUF depressions were observed
for equatorial and northern Australian regions over the last
24 hours. MUFs were near predicted monthly values to slightly
depressed for Southern Australia, with disturbed periods in the
Antarctic. Similar conditions are expected on 5-Jun. MUF depressions
of 20-40% across Australia are likely 6-7 Jun due to expected
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 30800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list