[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 3 09:30:17 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours. 
There are currently 3 numbered regions on the visible disc and 
all appear stable, with little change in size or complexity over 
the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed declined from 410km/s at 
00UT to be 330km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind speed 
is expected to remain at these levels over the next 24 hours, 
after which it is expected to increase on 04Jun due to recurrent 
coronal hole effects. The north south component of the Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between +/-3nT with no lengthy 
sustained southward periods. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity 
for the next 3 days with the chance of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11111000
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               2   11100111
      Townsville           2   11111001
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Alice Springs        0   01001000
      Norfolk Island       0   10000000
      Gingin               2   12110000
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             1   01011000
      Melbourne            2   01121000
      Launceston           2   11021000
      Hobart               1   01021000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   01020000
      Casey                4   03221101
      Mawson               5   32121021

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           21   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2211 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun     6    Quiet
04 Jun    35    Active to Minor Storm
05 Jun    25    Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions expected for 03Jun. Possible Active to 
Minor Storm conditions for 04Jun-05Jun from an expected rise 
in the solar wind velocity due to the influence of a high speed 
solar wind stream from a negative polarity, recurrent and equatorial 
positioned coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
05 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions expected over 
the next 24 hours, with mildly depressed ionospheric support 
at times for low latitudes. Periods of disturbed ionospheric 
support for high latitudes. Chance of disturbed ionospheric support 
and significant MUF depressions for mid to high latitudes on 
04Jun-05Jun from anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jun    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      32
Jun      44
Jul      43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun     0    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
05 Jun     0    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Notable MUF depressions for Equatorial and Northern 
AUS regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs near predicted monthly 
values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions, with notable 
disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are 
expected for the next 24 hours. Expected increase in geomagnetic 
activity, beginning 04Jun resulting in depressed MUFs of 20-40% 
for Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 442 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    89300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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