[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 16 issued 2341 UT on 01 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 2 09:41:21 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jun             03 Jun             04 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              75/13

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours. 
The largest event observed was a B7.9 flare at 2235UT from a 
yet to be determined region. There are currently 3 numbered regions 
on the visible disc and all appear stable, with little change 
in size or complexity over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed 
declined from 500km/s at 00UT to be 400km/s at the time of this 
report. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at these levels 
over the next 24-48 hours. An expected increase in solar wind 
speed is possible late in the UT day of 04Jun due to recurrent 
coronal hole effects. The north south component of the Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between +/-3nT with no lengthy 
sustained southward periods. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity 
for the next 3 days with the chance of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112211
      Cocos Island         1   11110100
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           4   11212211
      Learmonth            4   11212211
      Alice Springs        2   01112200
      Norfolk Island       1   01101101
      Gingin               3   00112211
      Camden               3   11112111
      Canberra             2   11112100
      Melbourne            4   11112211
      Launceston           4   11212211
      Hobart               3   11112201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   11121200
      Casey                8   23223211
      Mawson              15   34333233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   2132 1334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jun    30    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions expected for 02Jun-03Jun. Possible Active 
to Minor Storm conditions on 04Jun from an expected rise in the 
solar wind velocity due to the influence of a high speed solar 
wind stream from a recurrent equatorial positioned coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions over the next 
2 days with mildly depressed ionospheric support at times for 
low to mid latitudes. Periods of disturbed ionospheric support 
for high latitudes. Chance of disturbed ionospheric support and 
significant MUF depressions for mid to high latitudes on 04Jun 
from anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jun    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      32
Jun      46
Jul      45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
03 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
04 Jun     5    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Notable MUF depressions for Equatorial and Northern 
AUS regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs near predicted monthly 
values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions, with notable 
disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are 
expected for the next 2 days. Possible increase in geomagnetic 
activity for 04Jun resulting in depressed MUFs of 20-40% for 
Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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