[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 25 09:30:20 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 0620UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during 24 July. Active region
2567 produced two M-class flares: M2.0 peaking at 0620 UT and
M1.9 peaking at 1743 UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available SOHO LASCO imagery. Solar activity is expected
to be Low to Moderate during 25 July due to a chance that AR
2567 will produce M-class flares, then it will be Low and Very
Low to Low because there is a chance that C-class flares may
occur. During the last 24 hours the interplanetary magnetic field
Bt was almost constant, 5-8 nT, with its Bz component being predominantly
positive and varying in the range from -6 to +7 nT. A relatively
weak shock-like feature was observed in the solar wind at 1434
UT. The feature included an abrupt increase of the total magnetic
field Bt from 5 nT to 13 nT, electron number density from 8 to
13 particles/cm3, and bulk velocity from 390 km/s to 460 km/s.
During the feature crossing the Bz component varied in the range
from -5 nT to +2 nT and it was negative from 1457 UT to 1740
UT. During the next UT day, 25 July, the solar wind is expected
to be slightly enhanced due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 21111333
Cocos Island 9 10121433
Darwin 9 21222333
Townsville 9 21222333
Learmonth 10 20111443
Alice Springs 9 20121433
Norfolk Island 7 21111332
Culgoora 8 22212332
Gingin 15 21111454
Canberra 7 20111333
Launceston 11 21111443
Hobart 8 10111343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 10000342
Casey 15 32210453
Mawson 28 52222654
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2332 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 13 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 9 Quiet
COMMENT: During 24 July geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to
Unsettled in the Australian region and reached Minor Storm levels
in Antarctica. In the Australian region geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled during 25-26 July with
isolated Active periods due to possible CME and coronal hole
effects and Quiet on 27 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in both hemispheres during 24 July UT.
Regional depressions are persisting. Strong depressions were
observed predominately in the northern hemisphere. Conditions
are expected to be mildly depressed to near normal during the
next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
26 Jul 28 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
27 Jul 28 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in the Australian region during 24 July
UT. Sporadic E layers were observed. Conditions are expected
to be mostly normal or mildly depressed during the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 42700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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