[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 24 09:30:18 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7/-- 0516UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was High during 23 July. Active region
2567 produced three M5 and greater x-ray flares: M5.0 peaking
at 0211 UT, M7.6 peaking at 0516 UT, and M5.5 peaking at 0531
UT. The last flare was accompanied by a type II radio burst.
Two CMEs associated with the first and second flares were observed
in the SOHO LASCO imagery. The CMEs are not Earth directed; however,
a glancing blow affecting Earth is possible on 25 July. Solar
activity is expected to be Low to Moderate during the next 2
UT days, 24-25 July, due to a chance that AR 2565 and AR 2567
will produce M-class flares, and Low during 26 July. During the
last 24 hours the interplanetary magnetic field Bt was almost
constant, 5-7 nT, with its Bz component being predominantly positive
and varying in the range from -2 to +6 nT. However, during a
period 0135-0400 UT, when ACE spacecraft crossed a sector boundary,
Bt reached values as low as 2 nT and then Bz was negative (-4
nT on average) during the period 0230-0840 UT. During 23 July
the solar wind speed gradually decreased from 440 km/s to 370
km/s. During the next UT day, 24 July, the solar wind parameters
are expected to approach their background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 22220001
Cocos Island 3 22210001
Darwin 4 23220001
Townsville 6 33220012
Learmonth 3 12220001
Alice Springs 4 22320000
Norfolk Island 3 22220001
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 5 13320001
Canberra 4 22320001
Launceston 4 12320001
Hobart 4 12320000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
Macquarie Island 4 01331000
Casey 8 23321222
Mawson 21 43432016
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1212 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 7 Quiet
25 Jul 5 Quiet
26 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: During 23 July geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to
Unsettled in the Australian region and reached Active levels
in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be Quiet
during 24-25 July and Quiet to Unsettled on 26 July due to a
possible CME effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in both hemispheres during 23 July UT.
Regional depressions are persisting. Strong depressions were
observed predominately in the northern hemisphere. Conditions
are expected to be mildly depressed to near normal during the
next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
25 Jul 28 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
26 Jul 28 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in the Australian region during 23 July
UT. Sporadic E layers were observed. Conditions are expected
to be mostly normal or mildly depressed during the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 53100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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