[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 25 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 108/58 108/58
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low for the UT day, 24 January
due to long duration C1.4 flare at 0455UT from active region
2488. Solar flare activity is expected to remain Very Low to
Low over the next three days. No Earthward directed CMEs were
noted in SOHO imagery for 24 January. The solar wind speed increased
from 430 to to just under 500 km/s during the last 24 hours.
The Bz component of the IMF varied between +6/-7 nT over the
last 24 hours. The total IMF is currently at approximately 8
nT. Expect the solar wind to gradually decline to nominal levels
for the UT day, 25 January. Note EPAM shows an increase in lower
energy protons, uncertain at this time for the reason for the
increase. The energetic ion enhancements in the ACE satellites
solar wind EPAM proton data, in the energy range 47-65keV, with
a flux level greater than 1x10^4 particles/(cm2.sec.sterad.Mev),
provided a possible useful precursor to solar wind shocks and
geomagnetic storm activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11212231
Cocos Island 4 11111230
Darwin 6 11212231
Townsville 8 12212332
Learmonth 8 21222241
Alice Springs 6 21212231
Norfolk Island 5 11212221
Culgoora 5 12212221
Gingin 6 21212230
Canberra 4 11112221
Launceston 8 12222332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
Macquarie Island 7 12113330
Casey 19 24542332
Mawson 23 44322362
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 1331 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 6 Quiet
26 Jan 4 Quiet
27 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Unsettled to Quiet levels
throughout the Australian region during the UT day, 24 January.
Antarctica was Unsettled to Active with isolated cases of minor
storming. Expect a return to mostly Quiet levels for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were normal with
near predicted monthly values observed for UT day, 24 January.
Expect mostly near predicted values for the next three days.
Observed periods of sporadic E throughout the Australian region,
24 January, expect this trend to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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