[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 16 issued 2334 UT on 01 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 2 10:34:40 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 1 January.
Region 2473(S21W73) produced some B and low C-class flares. As
anticipated the effect of the CME observed on 28 December, kept
the solar wind stream relatively stronger. Solar wind speed stayed
between 420 and 460 km/s during most parts of the day today.
The Bz component of the IMF showed extended periods of negative
values at times up to -13 nT today. Bz mostly stayed close to
the normal values during the second half of the UT day. Low levels
of solar activity may be expected on 2 January with slight possibility
of M-class activity on this day. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected on 3 and 4 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet to minor
storm
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 33333122
Cocos Island 7 32222112
Darwin 9 33332012
Townsville 12 33333123
Learmonth 12 42333122
Alice Springs 11 33333112
Norfolk Island 8 23322022
Gingin 13 42333132
Camden 14 33433123
Canberra 9 33322112
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
Macquarie Island 26 46534122
Casey 25 53633223
Mawson 44 57643243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 51 3344 7665
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 15 Quiet to Active
03 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: As anticipated, the effect of the CME increased the
geomagnetic activity 1 January to minor storm levels. Beautiful
auroras have been observed and reported. Geomagnetic activity
may remain enhanced up to active levels on 2 January. Quiet to
unsettled levels of activity may be expected on 3 and 4 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Fair Fair-poor Poor
03 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair
04 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: As anticipated periods of minor to significant MUF depressions
were observed today. Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be expected on 2 January due to expected
continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. HF
conditions in the region may be expected to improve through 3
and 4 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 63
Feb 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
30%
03 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: As anticipated periods of minor to significant MUF depressions
were observed in the Australian/NZ regions today. Minor to mild
degradations in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be
expected on 2 January due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on this day. HF conditions in the region may
be expected to improve through 3 and 4 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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