[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 31 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 1 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 31 December.
Region 2473(S21W60) produced some B and low C-class flares. As
anticipated, the CME observed on 28 December, arrived today.
The arrival of the CME quickly raised solar wind speed from ~350
km/s to above 450 km/s and at times above 550 km/s. Solar wind
speed stayed between 450 and 550 km/s during most parts of the
day today. The Bz component showed variations between +/- 8 nT
for a few hours after the arrival of the CME. Then sustained
periods of negative Bz were observed. Low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next two days (1 and 2 January) with
slight possibility of M-class activity on these days. Very low
levels of solar activity may be expected on 3 January. Solar
wind stream is expected to remain relatively stronger on 1 and
2 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 20 33335343
Cocos Island 16 32234343
Darwin 19 33235343
Townsville 27 43336443
Learmonth 29 52335454
Alice Springs 20 33335343
Norfolk Island 19 33335333
Gingin 30 43346444
Camden 26 33336344
Canberra 23 33336333
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Macquarie Island 56 33567654
Casey 40 56554434
Mawson 40 34555464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 41
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 25 Unsettled to minor storm
02 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: As anticipated, the arrival of a CME increased the geomagnetic
activity on 31 December. The effect remained weaker than expected.
The solar wind speed remained below 600 km/s and Bz component
of IMF varied between positive and negative values. Only some
periods of sustained negative Bz were observed. Geomagnetic activity
may rise to minor storm levels today (1 January) if Bz stays
southwards for extended hours. Activity is expected to slowly
weaken through the two days 2 and 3 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
02 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of minor to significant MUF enhancements as
well as depressions were observed today. Minor to significant
degradations in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be
expected on 1 January due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on this day. HF conditions may be expected to
improve through 2 and 3 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
03 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to significant MUF enhancements as
well as depressions were observed in the Australian/NZ regions
today. Minor to significant degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be expected on 1 January due to expected
continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. HF
conditions in the region may be expected to improve through 2
and 3 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 40000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list