[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 16 issued 2352 UT on 20 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sun Feb 21 10:52:07 EST 2016

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 100/48

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Feb             22 Feb             23 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
the largest flare event being a B9.6 event at 0658UT. Solar wind 
speed continued to decline from ~550km/s at 01UT to be ~400km/s 
at the time of this report. The north south component of the 
IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT. Solar wind speed is expected 
to return to ambient levels over the next 24 hours. Solar activity 
is expected to be Low to Very Low for the next 3 days, with the 
potential for C-class flares from a region appearing on the southeast 
limb (possible returning region 2490).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22202101
      Cocos Island         2   21101100
      Darwin               4   22112101
      Townsville           5   22212102
      Learmonth            5   22113101
      Norfolk Island       4   2-202112
      Culgoora             3   11202101
      Canberra             2   11102100
      Launceston           5   22202211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     6   12402201
      Casey               15   34522212
      Mawson              19   54422124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              41   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           81   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   2323 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Feb     6    Quiet
22 Feb     5    Quiet
23 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal-Fair HF conditions over the last 24 hours with 
occasional depressed periods for mid latitudes and disturbed 
ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar conditions are 
expected for 21Feb. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for 
low to mid latitudes and improving ionospheric support for mid 
latitudes from 22Feb. Continued Fair-Poor ionospheric support 
for high latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions for all regions 
by 23Feb with occasional disturbed periods for high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Feb    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Feb    45    Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Normal to enhanced ionospheric support observed over 
the last 24 hours for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Depressed 
MUF's during local day observed for Southern AUS/NZ regions and 
normal to disturbed periods for Antarctic stations. Slow ionospheric 
recovery from recent geomagnetic activity and low solar activity 
over the next 2 days. HF conditions for 21Feb similar to those 
over the previous 24 hours. MUFs expected to be near monthly 
predicted values for Northern AUS/Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ 
regions for 22Feb-23Feb.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 557 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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