[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 11 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 12 10:30:32 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             107/57             105/54

COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day, 
11 Feb, with two C-class flares. These flares from Region 2497, 
which has shown some evidence of growth. The strongest C8.9 flare 
was between 11/2018 UT and 11/2128 UT, with peak intensity at 
11/2103 UT. This moderately long duration flare caused a Type 
II radio emission with an estimate shock speed of 483 km/s, which 
is indicative of a coronal mass ejection (CME) may have occurred. 
At the time of writing this report, the satellite imagery were 
not available to confirm this. More updates on this event will 
be provided later. The 2-day outlook (12-13 Feb) is for low to 
moderate solar activity with C-class flares likely and isolated 
chance of M-class flares. Our model runs indicated that the 09/0648 
UT CME is not likely have an impact at Earth. The solar wind 
has been mostly steady, near 350 km/s, during the past 24 hrs. 
The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -12 nT and 6 nT. 
Bt was between 3-12 nT. During the last 8 hours of the UT day 
11 Feb, the solar speed and IMF magnitudes have gradually enhanced. 
This is probably due the effects of the Corotating Interactive 
Region (CIR) and the following high speed streams from the small 
equatorial coronal hole is approaching a geoeffective location 
on the solar disk. The outlook for UT day 12 Feb is for the solar 
winds to gradually enhance as the effects of the coronal hole 
continues.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21223222
      Cocos Island         5   21202222
      Darwin               7   21223122
      Townsville           8   31223222
      Learmonth            7   31222222
      Norfolk Island       6   20223122
      Culgoora             6   21223112
      Canberra             6   20223112
      Launceston          11   31333213    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    15   21345312
      Casey                9   32322123
      Mawson              17   34322325

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2111 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions was mostly quiet and at times 
reached unsettled levels over the Australian region during the 
last 24 hours (11 Feb). The unsettled conditions were associated 
with IMF Bz been southwards from prolonged periods. The outlook 
for UT day 12 Feb is for mostly quiet to unsettled conditions, 
and at times possibly reaching minor levels. These conditions 
are forecasted due to a small equatorial coronal hole now taking 
a geoeffective location on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 11 Feb were near the predicted 
monthly values. Similar conditions are expected for UT day 12 
Feb, except for the high latitude regions where some MUF depressions 
could occur. This is forecasted due to the chance of active geomagnetic 
conditions on UT day 12 Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Feb    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb    65    Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 11 Feb were slightly above 
the monthly predicted values. The outlook (12 Feb) is for MUFs 
to remain near the monthly predicted levels. The solar ionising 
radiations (10.7 cm solar flux) has been steady near 120 s.f.u 
for the last 7 days. This is expected to maintain normal HF conditions. 
However, MUFs could degrade on UT day 13 Feb if there was active 
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    46300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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