[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 11 10:30:29 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Feb             12 Feb             13 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   112/63             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 10 Feb, with only one weak C-class flare and a number of 
smaller B-class flares. The strongest C1.3 flare was observed 
at 10/1522 UT from Region 2497. There are currently six numbered 
Earth facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The 2-day outlook 
(11-12 Feb) is for low solar activity with chance of smaller 
C-class flares. The CME associated with 08 Feb disappearing solar 
filament is not likely to effect earth. On UT day 9 Feb, there 
were two CMEs observed on the satellite imagery. One occurring 
at 09/0648 UT possibly associated with Region 2494 and the other 
one at 09/2149 UT, seems to be a back side event. More updates 
on the first event will be provided on the completion of the 
model runs. The solar wind has been steady, near 400 km/s, during 
the past 24 hrs. These are the waning effects of the coronal 
hole. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -6 nT and 
2 nT. Bt was between 3-6 nT. The outlook for UT day 11 Feb is 
for the solar winds to gradually enhance since a small equatorial 
coronal hole is approaching a geoeffective location on the solar 
disk.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22110011
      Cocos Island         2   22100110
      Darwin               2   11110012
      Townsville           3   22110011
      Learmonth            3   22110101
      Norfolk Island       2   11010012
      Culgoora             2   21110002
      Canberra             1   11000001
      Launceston           4   22120112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     2   11120001
      Casey                8   33221122
      Mawson              21   53321245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   1113 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Feb     6    Quiet and times becoming unsettled
12 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions was mostly quiet during the 
last 24 hours (10 Feb). The outlook for UT day 11 Feb is for 
mostly quiet conditions and at times possibly reaching unsettled 
levels. These conditions are forecasted due to a small equatorial 
coronal hole now taking a geoeffective location on the solar 
disk. Similar conditions was expected on UT day 12 Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 10 Feb were near the predicted 
monthly values. Similar conditions are expected for UT day 11 
Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Feb    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb    55    Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb    45    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 10 Feb were near the predicted 
monthly values. The outlook (11 Feb) is for MUFs to remain near 
the monthly predicted levels. The solar ionising radiations (10.7 
cm solar flux) has been steady near 120 s.f.u for the last 7 
days. This is expected to maintain normal HF conditions. However, 
MUFs could degrade on UT day 13 Feb if there was active geomagnetic 
conditions associated with the coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 408 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   115000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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