[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 7 10:30:26 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Feb             08 Feb             09 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity remained at low levels on 6 February 
with two C-class flares, the largest at C1.1 level (at 0311 UT) 
from Region 2494 (S11EW17). This region has reduced in complexity 
but still holds potential for C-class flares and possibly isolated 
M-class flare. Solar wind speed remained elevated mostly between 
460 to 480 km/s over the day, but is expected to decline over 
the next 24 hours. The Bz component of IMF showed variations 
between +/-5 nT during most parts of the day. Low levels of solar 
activity with the possibility of isolated M-class event may be 
expected from 07 to 09 February. The effect of a coronal hole 
may start to strengthen the solar wind stream from 8 February. 
A faint CME, that was observed in the LASCO images at 05/1936 
UT, may have an earthward component. It has been estimated to 
arrive early on 9 February. Further analysis is required for 
more details.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22112112
      Cocos Island         4   21112211
      Darwin               4   11112112
      Townsville           5   22212112
      Learmonth            5   22112212
      Norfolk Island       3   11112111
      Culgoora             5   22122111
      Canberra             3   11112111
      Launceston           8   32222222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     7   11143110
      Casey               19   35532222
      Mawson              15   24323234

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2322 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Feb     6    Quiet
08 Feb    14    Quiet to Active
09 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained mostly at Quiet levels 
on 6 February. Nearly similar conditions are likely on 07 February. 
Geomagnetic activity may increase up to Active levels on 08 February 
due to an expected effect of a coronal hole. Activity may stay at 
Unsettled to Active levels on 09 February due to the expectedly 
continued effect of this coronal hole as well as a possible blow 
from a faint and slow CME that was observed on 05 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFS were generally near predicted monthly values on 
most locations with slight enhancements recorded on low and mid 
latitude locations during the last 24 hours (06 Feb). Minor enhancements 
in MUFs are expected to continue on 07 February. Short wave fadeouts 
are possible in the sunlit hemisphere 07-09 February, mainly 
due to some possibility of isolated M-class flaring from an active 
region 2494. Minor to mild degradation in HF conditions and depressions 
in MUFs may be possible on 08 and 09 February due to expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Feb    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Feb    70    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
09 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: MUFS were generally near predicted monthly values on 
most locations in the Aus/NZ regions with slight enhancements 
recorded on low and mid latitude locations during the last 24 
hours (06 Feb). Minor enhancements in MUFs are expected to continue 
on 07 February in the region. Short wave fadeouts are possible in 
the sunlit hemisphere 07-09 February, mainly due to some possibility 
of isolated M-class flaring from an active region 2494. Minor 
to mild degradation in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs 
in the Aus/NZ regions may be possible on 08 and 09 February due 
to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    84000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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