[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 23 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Dec 24 10:30:47 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
As anticipated, solar wind stream stayed strong due to the continued
coronal hole effect. Solar wind speed mostly varied between 650
km/s and 750 km/s over the UT day today (23 December). The Bz
component of IMF varied mostly between +/-5 nT, staying slightly
southward for relatively longer periods of time on this day.
Bt varied mostly between 4 and 7 nT through the day. This coronal
hole effect is expected to keep the solar wind stream strong
for the next two days (24 to 25 December) with some possibility
of remaining effective during 26 December too. Very low levels
of solar activity may be expected for the next three days (24,
25 and 26 December).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 14 23343332
Cocos Island 11 12233422
Darwin 12 22343322
Townsville 13 23343322
Learmonth 14 22343333
Alice Springs 12 22343322
Norfolk Island 12 23333232
Gingin 17 22343443
Camden 14 23343332
Canberra 14 23333333
Launceston 20 24444333
Hobart 17 23443333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
Macquarie Island 30 24465433
Casey 30 45544443
Mawson 36 44444465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 12 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 77 (Active)
Canberra 83 (Minor storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20 4444 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 18 Mostly quiet to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible
25 Dec 12 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
26 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 22 December
and is current for 22-24 Dec. As expected, the geomagnetic activity
remained enhanced today (23 December) due to the effect of the
high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. The enhancements
were below the expected levels as the Bz component of IMF did
not turn much negative. The strong solar wind parameters due
to the continued effect of the coronal hole still indicate the
possibility of a rise in geomagnetic activity to minor storm
levels on 24 December if Bz shows sustained periods of negative
enough values. Mostly quiet to active levels of geomagnetic activity
may be expected on 24 December with some possibility of isolated
minor storm periods. Geomagnetic activity is then expected to
gradually decline to quite to unsettled levels with the possibility
of some active periods on 25 December, and then to mostly quiet
to unsettled levels on 26 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
25 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed today
(23 December UT). Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
on 24 and 25 December. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near
predicted monthly values on 26 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 0 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
25 Dec 5 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
26 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 69 was issued on 22 December
and is current for 22-24 Dec. Minor to mild depressions in MUFs
were observed in Aus/NZ regions today (23 December UT). Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected in this region on 24 and
25 December. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near predicted
monthly values on 26 December in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 632 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 247000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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