[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Dec 23 10:30:42 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
As anticipated, solar wind stream stayed strong due to the continued
coronal hole effect. Solar wind speed increased from around 550
km/s to over 700 km/s by 0600 UT and then decreased to nearly
600 km/s. It again increased to around 670 km/s by the time of
this report (2330UT). The Bz component of IMF varied mostly between
+/-9 nT during the UT day today (22 December). This coronal hole
effect is expected to keep the solar wind stream strong for the
next three days (23 to 25 December). Very low levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next three days (23, 24 and
25 December).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to active,
isolated minor storm periods on high latitudes
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 14 33333332
Cocos Island 9 23223231
Darwin 13 33333322
Townsville 14 33333332
Learmonth 15 33333333
Alice Springs 14 33333332
Norfolk Island 11 33332222
Gingin 15 33333333
Camden 14 33333332
Canberra 14 33333332
Launceston 18 33443333
Hobart 16 33433333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
Macquarie Island 34 34664432
Casey 30 55543343
Mawson 44 65444365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 85 (Minor storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 30 2223 4753
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 20 Quiet to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible
24 Dec 15 Quiet to active
25 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 22 December
and is current for 22-24 Dec. As expected, the geomagnetic activity
remained enhanced today (22 December) due to the effect of the
high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. The enhancements
were below the expected levels as the Bz component of IMF did
not stay southwards for long enough periods. The continued effect
of the coronal hole still has potential to raise geomagnetic
activity to minor storm levels on 23 December. Mostly quiet to
active levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 23 and
24 December with some possibility of isolated minor storm periods
on 23 December. Geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually
decline to quite to unsettled levels on 25 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Fair Fair-poor Poor
24 Dec Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs were observed
today (22 December UT). Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
on 23 and 24 December. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near
predicted monthly values on 25 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec -5 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Dec 0 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
25 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 69 was issued on 22 December
and is current for 22-24 Dec. Minor to moderate depressions in
MUFs were observed in Aus/NZ regions today (22 December UT).
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected in this region on
23 and 24 December. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near predicted
monthly values on 25 December in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 548 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 244000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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