[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 20 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Dec 21 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed steady, mostly between 350 and 370 km/s,
during the UT day today (20 December) and the north-south component
of IMF varied between -5 nT and +5 nT during this time. The previously
anticipated coronal hole effect has not kicked in yet. This coronal
hole effect may start to strengthen the solar wind wind stream
from 21 December. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next three days (21, 22 and 23 December) with a slight
possibility of isolated C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 21221212
Cocos Island 2 11110101
Darwin 4 21121202
Townsville 6 21222212
Learmonth 5 21222202
Alice Springs 5 21221202
Norfolk Island 4 21121211
Gingin 5 21111213
Camden 5 12221212
Canberra 5 12221211
Launceston 7 22232212
Hobart 5 12221212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
Macquarie Island 9 11342301
Casey 12 34332212
Mawson 18 23223316
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1112 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 25 Quiet to minor storm
22 Dec 30 Active to Minor Storm
23 Dec 25 Unsettled to minor storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 19 December
and is current for 20-22 Dec. Geomagnetic activity stayed at
quiet levels on 20 December. This was below the pervious anticipations
as the expected coronal hole effects have not started yet. Expected
strengthening in solar wind stream due to the coronal hole effects,
may result in enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels up
to minor storm levels from 21 to 23 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-poor
22 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
23 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed today.
Depressed conditions are likely to continue in coming days as
geomagnetic activity is expected to rise from today and the level
of ionising radiation is not expected to show any significant
increases. Lowering the operating frequency may result in propagation
via sporadic E layers when present.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec -5 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
22 Dec -15 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
23 Dec -15 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on 18 December
and is current for 19-21 Dec. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
were observed in Aus/NZ regions today. Depressed conditions are
likely to continue in coming days as geomagnetic activity is
expected to rise from today and the level of ionising radiation
is not expected to show any significant increases. Lowering the
operating frequency may result in propagation via sporadic E
layers when present.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 37200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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