[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 19 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Tue Dec 20 10:30:21 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Dec             21 Dec             22 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              78/17

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed stayed steady, mostly between 350 and 370 km/s, 
during the UT day today (19 December) and the north-south component 
of IMF varied between -4 nT and +4nT (staying southward until 
around 1900 UT) during this time. As mentioned in earlier reports, 
two positive polarity coronal holes are taking geoeffective position. 
This coronal hole effect may start to strengthen the solar wind 
wind stream from 20 December. Very low levels of solar activity 
may be expected for the next three days (20, 21 and 22 December) 
with a slight possibility of isolated C-class activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111121
      Cocos Island         2   01111120
      Darwin               2   11110111
      Townsville           6   22111132
      Learmonth            5   21121221
      Alice Springs        4   12110122
      Norfolk Island       2   21100021
      Gingin               4   21121121
      Camden               5   22211122
      Canberra             5   22210122
      Launceston           7   23211222
      Hobart               5   12211122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     5   12222121
      Casey               16   34522132
      Mawson              18   34322353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2221 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Dec    15    Quiet to Active
21 Dec    25    Unsettled to Minor Storm
22 Dec    30    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels on 19 December. 
An expected, strengthening in solar wind stream due to a coronal 
hole effect may result in enhancements in geomagnetic activity 
levels to Active on 20 December and to Minor Storm on 21 and 
22 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-poor    Normal-poor
21 Dec      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Poor
22 Dec      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Poor

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed today. 
Depressed conditions are likely to continue in coming days as 
geomagnetic activity is expected to rise from today and the level 
of ionising radiation is not expected to increase. Lowering the 
operating frequency may result in propagation via sporadic E 
layers when present.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Dec    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      24
Jan      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Dec    -5    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Dec   -10    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
22 Dec   -15    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on 18 December 
and is current for 19-21 Dec. Minor to moderate MUF depressions 
were observed in Aus/NZ regions today. Depressed conditions are 
likely to continue in coming days as geomagnetic activity is 
expected to rise from today and the level of ionising radiation 
is not expected to increase. Lowering the operating frequency 
may result in propagation via sporadic E layers when present.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:   113000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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