[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 17 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Dec 18 10:30:56 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 17 Dec UT and
it is expected to remain very low during the next 3 days. A new
minor sunspot group has formed just east of the central meridian.
GONG Hydrogen alpha telescopes recorded a Disappearing Solar
Filament (DSF) near the NW limb during 16-17 UT on 17 Dec. SOHO
LASCO coronograms recorded two CMEs expanding toward the east
and one toward the north during 17 Dec. None of these CMEs are
Earthward directed. Re-occurrent Coronal Hole 779 will begin
to affect Earth during 19-20 Dec. The solar wind speed decreased
to about 330 km/s during the first half of 17 Dec and then surged
to about 420 km/s during the second half. The solar wind speed
is currently about 380 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF is about
10 nT and the Bz component briefly reached -6 nT during 20 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 10112222
Cocos Island 3 00111221
Darwin 4 10121222
Townsville 8 21222233
Learmonth 6 10122232
Alice Springs 6 10122223
Norfolk Island 4 20111122
Gingin 4 10112222
Camden 5 10112223
Canberra 5 10112123
Launceston 8 21222233
Hobart 4 11112122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 10001122
Casey 10 33322123
Mawson 14 22122245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 6 Quiet
19 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Dec 20 Active
COMMENT: Re-occurrent Coronal Hole 779 produced minor to major
geomagnetic storm periods during previous solar rotations. CH
779 will begin to affect Earth during 19-20 Dec. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet today, 18 Dec,
reaching unsettled to active levels during 19-20 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Poor-fair Poor Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Poor-fair Poor Fair-normal
19 Dec Fair Poor-fair Fair-normal
20 Dec Fair Poor-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were strongly
depressed in the Southern Hemisphere and moderately depressed
in the Northern Hemisphere during 17 Dec UT. Depressed conditions
are likely to continue in the Southern Hemisphere in coming days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec -10 0 to 30% below predicted monthly values
19 Dec -5 0 to 25% below predicted monthly values
20 Dec -5 0 to 25% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on 15 December
and is current for 16-18 Dec. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation
were strongly depressed throughout the Australian region during
17 Dec UT. Local daily T indices ranged between -30 at Norfolk
Island and 1 at Niue. Depressed conditions are likely to continue
in coming days. Lowering the operating frequency may result in
propagation via sporadic E layers when present.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 15900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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