[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 16 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Dec 17 10:30:56 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 16 Dec UT and
it is expected to remain very low during the next 3 days. AR
2617 produced two weak B class flares. GONG Hydrogen alpha images
recorded a Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) in the NW quadrant
during 19-20 UT on 15 Dec. SOHO LASCO coronograms show a weak
CME expanding towards the NW starting at about 21 UT. Re-occurrent
Coronal Hole 779 has started crossing the solar meridian and
will impact Earth next week. The solar wind speed increased to
nearly 400 km/s during the first half of 16 Dec, but then resumed
its decline and is currently about 360 km/s. The magnitude of
the IMF has been about 3 nT and the Bz component has been
predominantly northward.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 21100001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 21100012
Learmonth 1 21000001
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Norfolk Island 2 21000011
Gingin 2 21000011
Camden 1 11100001
Canberra 2 21100001
Launceston 3 22100002
Hobart 2 21100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 21000001
Casey 11 34331112
Mawson 10 32101125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 4 Quiet
18 Dec 4 Quiet
19 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Australian region and planetary geomagnetic indices
were mostly in the range 0 to 1 during 16 Dec UT. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet during the next
2 days. Reoccurrent Coronal Hole 779 will impact Earth next week,
producing at least minor storm intervals. CH 779 produced major
geomagnetic storm periods during previous solar rotations.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Poor-fair Poor Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Poor-fair Poor Fair-normal
18 Dec Fair Poor-fair Fair-normal
19 Dec Fair Poor-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were strongly
depressed in the Southern Hemisphere and weakly depressed to
normal in the Northern Hemisphere during 16 Dec UT. The strong
depressions seem unrelated to recent geomagnetic activity and
are likely to continue in coming days. Poor to fair HF propagation
conditions are expected today, 17 Dec UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec -15 0 to 35% below predicted monthly values
18 Dec -10 0 to 30% below predicted monthly values
19 Dec -10 0 to 25% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on 15 December
and is current for 16-18 Dec. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation
were strongly depressed throughout the Australian region during
16 Dec UT. Local daily T indices ranged between -50 at Niue and
-6 at Perth. The strong depressions seem unrelated to recent
geomagnetic activity and are likely to continue in coming days.
Lowering the operating frequency may result in propagation via
sporadic E layers when present.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 38200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list