[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 30 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 31 09:30:36 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 30 August, with
three C-class flares, the largest was a C2 at approximately 1840UT.
Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low for the next three
days. SOHO C2 imagery showed three CMEs associated with streamers
beginning at 30/0012UT (west limb), 30/0248UT (east limb) and
30/0824UT (east limb). They were not Earthward directed and are
not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed increased from
350 to 470 km/s during the last 24 hours and is expected to continue
to increase as the large northern pole connected coronal hole
becomes geoeffective. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +/-9 nT during the last 24 hours
with a Bt varying between 5 and 10 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 22223332
Cocos Island 6 11111332
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 12 24223323
Learmonth 10 21223333
Alice Springs 10 22223332
Norfolk Island 6 21122222
Gingin 13 22214343
Camden 9 22123332
Canberra 9 22123332
Launceston 12 22224333
Hobart 11 22124332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Macquarie Island 18 12325532
Casey 14 34233233
Mawson 31 54333464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1101 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 16 Unsettled to Active
01 Sep 12 Unsettled
02 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over Australia
for the UT day, 30 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
remain Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active periods at higher
latitudes for the next three days due to an expected increase
in the solar wind speed associated with a recurrent coronal hole.
The Antarctic region may have isolated periods of Minor Storm
conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed from 31 August to 02 September due to minor geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in Northern Australian
region during the UT day, 30 August. Mild depressions in MUFs
and degradations in HF conditions may be observed in the Australian/NZ
regions for the next three days due to minor geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 13.6 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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