[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 29 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 30 09:30:22 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 29 August, with
two C-class flares from AR2583 (N13W66). Expect solar activity
to be Very Low to Low for the next two days, afterwards AR2583
will rotate around the west limb and activity will likely return
to Very Low. No CMEs were observed using SOHO C2 imagery on 29
August. Solar wind speed varied between 375 and 325 km/s during
the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +9/-7 nT during the same period with a slight
increase in Bt rising from 5 to 8nT. The solar wind parameters
are expected to get stronger on 30 August due to expected recurrent
coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 10022112
Cocos Island 4 11022122
Darwin 5 21122112
Townsville 4 21022112
Learmonth 4 20022122
Alice Springs 3 10022112
Norfolk Island 3 11022011
Gingin 3 10012122
Camden 4 11022112
Canberra 3 10012112
Launceston 5 20122122
Hobart 3 10012122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 00002201
Casey 6 22212122
Mawson 26 32202247
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0012 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 25 Active
31 Aug 12 Unsettled
01 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 27 August and
is current for 29-30 Aug. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for
the UT day, 29 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase
to Unsettled to Active levels today, 30 August, due to an expected
increase in the solar wind speed associated with a recurrent
coronal hole. The following two days will likely remain Unsettled
based on recurrence data.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed from 30 August to 01 September due to expected
rise in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 27 August
and is current for 29-30 Aug. Mild MUF depressions were observed
in Northern Australian region during the UT day, 29 August. Mild
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be
observed in the Australian/NZ regions from 30 August to 01 September
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 304000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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