[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 29 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 30 09:30:22 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 29 August, with 
two C-class flares from AR2583 (N13W66). Expect solar activity 
to be Very Low to Low for the next two days, afterwards AR2583 
will rotate around the west limb and activity will likely return 
to Very Low. No CMEs were observed using SOHO C2 imagery on 29 
August. Solar wind speed varied between 375 and 325 km/s during 
the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field ranged between +9/-7 nT during the same period with a slight 
increase in Bt rising from 5 to 8nT. The solar wind parameters 
are expected to get stronger on 30 August due to expected recurrent 
coronal hole becoming geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   10022112
      Cocos Island         4   11022122
      Darwin               5   21122112
      Townsville           4   21022112
      Learmonth            4   20022122
      Alice Springs        3   10022112
      Norfolk Island       3   11022011
      Gingin               3   10012122
      Camden               4   11022112
      Canberra             3   10012112
      Launceston           5   20122122
      Hobart               3   10012122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   00002201
      Casey                6   22212122
      Mawson              26   32202247

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0012 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug    25    Active
31 Aug    12    Unsettled
01 Sep    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 27 August and 
is current for 29-30 Aug. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for 
the UT day, 29 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase 
to Unsettled to Active levels today, 30 August, due to an expected 
increase in the solar wind speed associated with a recurrent 
coronal hole. The following two days will likely remain Unsettled 
based on recurrence data.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions 
may be observed from 30 August to 01 September due to expected 
rise in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Aug    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
31 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
01 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 27 August 
and is current for 29-30 Aug. Mild MUF depressions were observed 
in Northern Australian region during the UT day, 29 August. Mild 
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be 
observed in the Australian/NZ regions from 30 August to 01 September 
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:   304000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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