[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 29 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 30 09:30:32 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.9 0516 UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was high on 29 Sep UT. AR 2422 and AR
2423 produced 9 short duration M class flares. AR 2422 produced
the strongest event of the day, an M2.9 flare peaking at 05:16
UT. AR 2422 produced an M1.1 flare peaking at 19:24 UT. GONG
H alpha images suggest the possible eruption of a filament associated
with this flare. A strong solar radio burst accompanied the M1.1
flare and a weak Type II event subsequently occurred at 19:30
UT. SOHO LASCO coronograms will be assessed for a possible Earthward
directed CME when they become available later in the day. AR
2422 is still large and complex and will likely produce more
M class flares today, possibly an X class event. A solar filament
has recently emerged near the central meridian in the Southern
Hemisphere. This feature is rotating into the geoeffective zone.
The Earth is presently immersed in slow solar wind with a speed
of about 340 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF has been about 4
nT and Bz has been fluctuating mostly in the range -4 nT to +4
nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 21210001
Cocos Island 2 21110000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 3 22210011
Learmonth 2 21210000
Alice Springs 2 22100001
Norfolk Island 2 21210010
Culgoora 2 21210001
Gingin 2 21110000
Camden 2 21210001
Canberra 2 21110001
Melbourne 2 21210001
Launceston 3 22220001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 01220000
Casey 8 33420011
Mawson 17 55310004
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 6 Quiet
01 Oct 6 Quiet
02 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet on 29 Sep 2015. The
Earth is presently immersed in slow solar wind with no strong
solar wind disturbances expected to impact Earth during the next
2 days. The 3-day outlook is for quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions. A Corotating Interacting Region (CIR) may arrive
at Earth on 3 Oct and drive active geomagnetic conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are gradually
trending back towards the predicted monthly value in delayed
response to increasing solar flux. The conditions are expected
to be mildly depressed at mid-latitude locations and variable
at low latitude locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 55 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
01 Oct 55 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
02 Oct 55 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 59 was issued on 28
September and is current for 29-30 Sep. Conditions for HF radio
propagation were mildly depressed at Australian mid-latitude
stations during 29 Sep UT. Most T indices were in the range of
50 to 65. However, the T index for Niue was only 40 and the T
index for Cocos Island was 104 due to enhanced conditions during
06 to 16 UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 47900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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