[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 28 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 29 09:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.6 1458 UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was high on 28 Sep 2015. AR 2422 produced
and M7.6 X-ray flare peaking at 14:58 UT and AR 2423 produced
an M3.6 flare peaking at 03:55 UT. AR 2422 is a large active
region (Area=650 millionths) with the potential to produce further
strong M class flares (Mag Type=Beta Gamma Delta) and possibly
an X-class flare. So far, most of the flares have been short
duration. AR 2422 will soon rotate beyond the western limb. The
large solar filament (prominence) just to the east of AR 2222
has also started rotating beyond the western limb and is no longer
a major threat. There are presently no Earthward directed CMEs.
The Earth is presently immersed in slow solar wind with a speed
of about 360 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF has been about 5
nT and Bz has been fluctuating mostly in the range -4 nT to +4
nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11001011
Cocos Island 1 11000010
Darwin 2 12001012
Townsville 3 12001121
Learmonth 3 21001022
Alice Springs 2 02001012
Norfolk Island 0 -1000010
Culgoora 1 11001011
Gingin 2 20000012
Camden 1 01001111
Canberra 1 00001011
Melbourne 2 11001111
Launceston 2 11101012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 8 33311022
Mawson 10 31101144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1101 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 5 Quiet
30 Sep 6 Quiet
01 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet on 28 Sep 2015. The
Earth is presently immersed in slow solar wind with no strong
solar wind disturbances expected to impact Earth during the next
2 days. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
during the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are gradually
trending back towards the predicted monthly value in response
to increasing solar flux. The conditions are expected to be mildly
depressed at mid-latitude locations and moderately depressed
at low latitude locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 55 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
30 Sep 60 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
01 Oct 55 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mildly depressed
at mid-latitude stations and more depressed for low latitude
stations throughout the Australian region during 28 Sep UT. For
example, the daily T index was 60 for Brisbane and 42 for Niue.
The conditions are gradually trending back toward predicted monthly
values. Mild depressions are expected during the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 76500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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