[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 Sep 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 27 09:30:30 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Sep             28 Sep             29 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Considerable optical and radio activity observed over 
the UT day Sep 26 from AR2422 (S21E04), but no flares above the 
C1 level. Other regions on the visible solar disk mostly stable, 
although the large filament in the Southwest quadrant showed 
some activity at its southern margin early in the UT day. Solar 
wind speed declined from 500 to 400 km/s over the UT day. The 
IMF Bz component was mostly mildly Northward with brief negative 
excursions. Some dissipation of the sequence of coronal holes 
around central meridian has been observed. Expect low solar activity 
next three days with the chance of isolated C- to M-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21100221
      Cocos Island         3   11100221
      Darwin               4   21100222
      Townsville           4   21100222
      Learmonth            5   21110231
      Alice Springs        3   20000221
      Norfolk Island       1   10000020
      Culgoora             3   21000221
      Gingin               4   11000331
      Camden               3   21000221
      Canberra             2   11000221
      Melbourne            3   21100221
      Launceston           4   22100221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     2   11000120
      Casey               10   34320222
      Mawson              12   32220153

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           14   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2113 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed at all 
latitudes. The anticipated coronal hole wind stream has not eventuated 
and the suggested originating sequence of coronal holes appears 
to be dissipating. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three 
days with the possibility of isolated Unsettled intervals.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
28 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Some recovery observed at all latitudes from the degraded 
propagation conditions observed over the past week.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Sep    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      46
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Sep    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
28 Sep    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
29 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions were observed during 26 
September over the Australasian region due to low levels of ionising 
radiation. There was continuing recovery in all regions over 
the poor ionospheric support for HF of the previous week. Expect 
mild depressions N and S Aus regions mainly local day and periods 
of disturbance Antarctic region next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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